ADB Forecasts Nepal’s Economic Growth to Slow to 3.9% in 2026

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has projected that Nepal’s economic growth will slow to 3.9% in 2026, reflecting a broader economic slowdown across the Asia-Pacific region. According to the ADB, Nepal’s economy grew by 4.4% in 2025 and is expected to recover modestly to 4.5% in 2027. The latest forecast is significantly below Nepal’s official growth ambitions, with the Nepal Rastra Bank (NRB) targeting 7% economic growth for the upcoming fiscal year, while the government had earlier set a 6% growth target for the current fiscal year. However, actual growth is estimated at around 3.85%. The ADB attributed the weaker outlook to persistent global challenges, including inflationary pressures, supply chain disruptions, and geopolitical tensions that continue to weigh on regional economies. Despite these headwinds, South Asia is expected to record an overall growth rate of 6% in 2026. Within the region, India is projected to lead with 6.6% growth, followed by Bhutan (6.5%), Sri Lanka (4.0%), Bangladesh and Pakistan (3.7% each), Afghanistan (2.3%), and the Maldives (1.0%). Outside South Asia, China’s economy is forecast to expand by 4.6% in 2026.